U.S. Domestic Intelligence Brief – December 22, 2025

UNRESTRICTED//REL PUBLIC

Good morning. As the holiday week begins with increasing respiratory virus activity and an ongoing Arctic cold wave affecting much of the nation, immigration enforcement continues amid widespread protests; the domestic threat environment remains high per official assessments, economic growth slows with tariff impacts, and mid-decade redistricting efforts shape the 2026 electoral landscape—all underscoring evolving domestic challenges.

Bottom-Line Up Front

1. DHS assesses high terrorism threat environment into 2025, driven by lone offenders and small groups responding to sociopolitical developments.
The 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment highlights persistent risks from domestic violent extremists (DVEs) and foreign terrorist organization (FTO)-inspired individuals, with lone actors posing the greatest challenge.

2. Economic growth projected at 2.0% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, with core inflation at 3.0% and unemployment rising to 4.5% in 2026.
Deloitte’s Q4 forecast cites tariff effects and policy uncertainty as key drags.

3. Arctic cold wave brings below-average temperatures to northern and eastern U.S.; multiple waves expected through mid-December.
Disrupted polar vortex drives frigid air southward.

Image credit: AccuWeather – Polar vortex temperature anomaly map (December 2025)

4. Seasonal influenza activity increasing nationally; RSV rising in Southeast; overall respiratory illness low but trending up.
CDC data as of December 19 shows flu positivity at 14.8%, with hospitalizations rising.

Image credit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Map, Week 50 (2025)

5. Mid-decade redistricting ongoing in multiple states, including Texas and California, ahead of 2026 elections.
New maps alter congressional districts, with litigation in some cases.

Image credit: The Texas Tribune – Proposed Texas congressional redistricting map (2025)

6. Protests against immigration enforcement and mass deportations continue nationwide.
Demonstrations in various cities respond to increased ICE operations.

Image credit: Reuters – Protesters in New York following ICE operations (2025), Image credit: Associated Press – Anti-deportation demonstration in Los Angeles (2025), Image credit: Getty Images – Protest march against mass deportations in Chicago (2025)

1. High Domestic Terrorism Threat from Lone Actors and DVEs

Summary
DHS’s official 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment projects a sustained high threat environment, primarily from lone offenders and small groups motivated by a mix of grievances.

Findings

• Lone offenders pose the greatest terrorism threat, often with little warning.¹
• DVEs conducted attacks and plots driven by anti-government, racial, or other ideologies.¹
• FTOs like ISIS encourage attacks, leveraging conflicts for radicalization.¹

Why This Matters
Persistent high threats strain resources and require vigilance, particularly around sociopolitical events.

2. Slowing Economic Growth Amid Policy Impacts

Summary
Deloitte forecasts moderated growth due to tariffs and uncertainty.

Findings

• Real GDP: 2.0% (2025), 1.9% (2026).²
• Core PCE inflation peaks at 3.0% in 2026.²
• Unemployment rises to 4.5% in 2026.²

Why This Matters
Slower growth and rising inflation/unemployment affect households and policy debates into midterms.

3. Ongoing Arctic Cold Wave

Summary
Multiple rounds of Arctic air impact central and eastern U.S. through mid-December.

Findings

• Disrupted polar vortex drives cold outbreaks.³⁴
• Below-average temperatures northern/eastern states.³

Why This Matters
Increases energy demands and travel risks during holidays.

4. Increasing Respiratory Virus Activity

Summary
Flu activity rising nationally; RSV in Southeast.

Findings

• Flu test positivity 14.8%; hospitalizations increasing.⁵⁶
• Overall ARI low but influenza driving trends.⁷

Why This Matters
Potential strain on healthcare during peak holiday season.

5. Mid-Decade Redistricting Developments

Summary
States like Texas and California enact new congressional maps for 2026.

Findings

• Texas map targets additional GOP seats.⁸
• Ongoing efforts in multiple states alter district lines.⁹

Why This Matters
Shapes congressional control in 2026 elections.

6. Protests Against Immigration Enforcement

Summary
Ongoing demonstrations in response to increased operations.

Findings

• Protests in major cities against raids and deportations.¹⁰¹¹¹²

Why This Matters
Highlights community tensions and enforcement challenges.

End Brief.

Sources drawn from official government sites and primary reports; analysis is independent.

Bibliography

1. U.S. Department of Homeland Security. (2024, September 30). 2025 Homeland Threat Assessment. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-10/24_0930_ia_24-320-ia-publication-2025-hta-final-30sep24-508.pdf
2. Deloitte Insights. (2025, December 18). US Economic Forecast Q4 2025. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html
3. AccuWeather. (2025, December 5). Polar vortex to bring triple whammy of Arctic cold. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/polar-vortex-to-bring-triple-whammy-of-arctic-cold-to-us-through-mid-december/1840203
4. USA Today. (2025, December 4). A triple-dip Polar vortex is coming. https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2025/12/03/polar-vortex-december-weather/87588176007/
5. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2025, December 19). Weekly US Influenza Surveillance Report: Week 50. https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/surveillance/2025-week-50.html
6. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2025, December 19). Respiratory Virus Activity Levels. https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/data/activity-levels.html
7. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2025, December 19). Respiratory Illnesses Data Channel. https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/data/index.html
8. The Texas Tribune. (2025, July 30). Texas Republicans target five seats in new congressional map. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/30/texas-redistricting-congressional-maps-house-republicans/
9. Ballotpedia. (2025). Redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections. https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_ahead_of_the_2026_elections
10. Wikipedia. (2025). 2025 United States protests against mass deportation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_protests_against_mass_deportation
11. Human Rights Watch. (2025, June 9). Trump Takes Advantage of Anti-ICE Protests in California. https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/06/09/trump-takes-advantage-of-anti-ice-protests-in-california
12. Reuters. (2025, October 22). In pictures: Protesters take to streets after ICE raids in New York. https://www.reuters.com/pictures/pictures-protesters-take-streets-after-ice-raids-new-york-2025-10-22/